Video: Building a Weekly Revenue Forecast Model

April 22, 2025 | Issue #118

Big Deal Small Business: Building a Weekly Revenue Forecast Model

April 22, 2025 | Issue #118

This is a blog written by Kaustubh Deo // Guesswork Investing about acquiring & operating small businesses. If you are a new reader / new searcher, please start here.

---

Bottoms-Up Revenue Modeling

Today, I’ve put together another Loom video for you all that walks you through how I build a weekly revenue forecast for a service business.

This is how I built up the revenue side of my 2025 model from scratch.

A pet peeve of mine is when business owners simply state “we are budgeting revenue to grow 15% this year” — that’s not a useful goal.

To me, I want to know what actual growth actions you are planning to take this year, and how that translates into incremental revenue growth.

For example, are you adding another crew? Are you adding more people to your existing crews to make them more efficient (thereby increasing capacity)? Are you raising prices? Are you implementing new systems to improve labor rate?

This modeling exercise attempts to start with that framework — bottoms-up — and then builds it up into a full-year revenue model that can be broken down into weekly & monthly revenue goals by line item.

This video is available to all subscribers, but for paid subscribers, I will also make the Excel sheet available — just reply to this email and I will send it to you!

---

Sponsor Information

We have a special sponsor for this video series: The Operator Accelerator.

Brought to you by Decada Group (Chase Murdock & team) and John Seiffer, it’s a 6-month, small-group program for business owners who want to accelerate the journey to becoming strong, confident operators.

No fluff. Just systems, tools, and frameworks that actually work. Their next cohort kicks off in May, and applications close on May 10th. Spots are limited, so check out the website where you can learn more or apply.

---

Video Link & Outline

Without further ado, here’s the Loom video. Below is the outline of the video, written by Loom AI:

Creating a Weekly Forecasting Tool in Excel for Service Businesses

1. Introduction to the Tool 0:01

• Overview of the Excel training tool for weekly forecasting.

• Purpose: To build a budget for a service business on a weekly basis that rolls up to a monthly budget.

• Offer for paid subscribers to receive the actual email attachment.

3. Starting the Excel Sheet 1:59

• Begin with a blank Excel sheet to create a 2024 budget for a service business.

• Importance of having a weekly budget to monitor business performance throughout the year.

4. Setting Up Weeks 2:50

• Create a list of 52 weeks for the year.

• Define week start and week end dates, using a Monday to Friday model.

5. Modeling Revenue Crews 4:26

• Identify three types of revenue crews: install crew, service crew, and specialist crew.

• Determine working days per week for each crew based on capacity.

6. Setting Crew Members and Targets 6:05

• Define the number of crew members for each type.

• Set target dollars per hour for each crew.

7. Calculating Revenue Per Week 7:10

• Model revenue per week based on crew working days, crew members, and target dollars per hour.

• Use Excel functions to calculate total revenue.

8. Daily Revenue Breakdown 9:09

• Create a breakdown of revenue by day of the week.

• Use Excel functions to allocate revenue to specific days.

9. Monthly Revenue Allocation 10:10

• Set up a system to convert weekly revenue into monthly totals using SUMIFS functions.

10. Adjusting for Holidays 19:01

• Manually adjust the budget for holidays and non-working days to ensure accuracy.

11. Final Review and Adjustments 20:38

• Review the budget for any discrepancies or unexpected results.

• Use freeze panes in Excel for better navigation.

12. Conclusion and Reminder 22:31

• Recap of the importance of the forecasting tool.

• Reminder about the Operator Accelerator program and its upcoming cohort.

---

Conclusion

I’d love your feedback on this content format — does it work? How could it be better?

Let me know your thoughts on both the content & format, I’m always curious to hear your feedback.

Just hit reply to this email or find me on Twitter.

Thanks,

Kaustubh // Guesswork Investing